Former Formula 1 driver Juan Pablo Montoya has predicted that Max Verstappen will leave Red Bull at the end of the 2026 season to join Mercedes. Verstappen, a four-time world champion, has been frequently linked with a move to the Silver Arrows, particularly with the upcoming changes in F1’s power unit regulations. Montoya believes Verstappen will remain with Red Bull at the start of the new era in 2026, but may leave if the team’s powertrain proves to be uncompetitive.
Red Bull, which has been a dominant force in recent years, will transition into becoming a powertrain manufacturer for the new regulations—a role it has never undertaken before. Many experts anticipate that the team may face initial struggles with the new setup, which could prompt Verstappen to consider other options. Montoya believes Verstappen is unlikely to stay with Red Bull if the team’s performance drops significantly.
Montoya expressed his view that Verstappen, despite being highly successful with Red Bull, would not tolerate being at the back of the grid if the team’s powertrain development falters. “If Red Bull comes with the powertrains and it’s not where it needs to be, is Max going to be happy running 10th? No,” Montoya said. In that scenario, he feels that Mercedes would be an attractive alternative, and Verstappen would likely jump at the chance to join them.
Montoya emphasized that loyalty to Red Bull would be easy for Verstappen as long as he continues winning races. However, if the team’s performance falters, Montoya believes Verstappen would already be looking for potential options, including a move to Mercedes. “It would surprise me if he’s not” considering such a move, Montoya concluded, noting that while Verstappen may publicly deny the possibility, private conversations could already be taking place.
