Yuki Tsunoda faces a slim chance of being promoted to Red Bull Racing for the 2025 Formula 1 season, even if the team follows through with its plans to replace Sergio Perez. After the season finale in Abu Dhabi, Red Bull shareholders are set to meet and make a final decision regarding their 2025 driver line-up. Although Perez has been given the opportunity to step down on his terms, possibly by retiring, Red Bull is believed to be ready to pay him off if necessary, despite having signed him to a contract extension in June running theoretically until 2026.
With Perez likely leaving, the most likely replacement is Liam Lawson, currently the favorite to partner Max Verstappen. This decision, however, would effectively rule out Tsunoda, a driver Red Bull has been hesitant to promote to its top team for several years. Tsunoda, who will drive a contemporary Red Bull in the post-season Abu Dhabi test as a favor to Honda, is not considered as part of Red Bull’s evaluation process, and this opportunity is unlikely to influence the team’s decision.
Tsunoda’s potential exclusion from the Red Bull seat would be painful, as he has arguably been the fastest non-Verstappen driver in the Red Bull family over the past two seasons. After a difficult rookie season, Tsunoda showed significant improvement in his second year with Pierre Gasly, outshining Nyck de Vries, Daniel Ricciardo, and Lawson in 2023 and 2024. His strong qualifying performances and consistent race results have made him a standout, but Red Bull’s preference for Lawson seems to stem from concerns over Tsunoda’s ability to consistently perform under pressure.
Despite Tsunoda’s speed and his improved performance, Red Bull has reservations about his mental resilience and technical feedback. Christian Horner, Red Bull’s team principal, acknowledged Tsunoda’s speed but hinted that the pressure of being Verstappen’s teammate might be too much for him, as he has made mistakes under pressure and struggled with his radio communication. Tsunoda’s technical feedback has also been deemed less impressive compared to Ricciardo’s, which further hurts his case.
Red Bull sees Lawson as mentally stronger and more dependable, with the potential to become more competitive as he gains experience. As a result, Tsunoda’s consistent form is unlikely to be enough to earn him a Red Bull Racing seat. If he is not promoted, Tsunoda could be leaving Red Bull at the end of next season, especially with Honda’s impending departure from Red Bull in 2026. While Aston Martin’s seats are filled, Tsunoda may attract interest from other teams, such as Haas, which had previously shown interest before Red Bull confirmed his place for 2025.
